Growth outlook
It is expecting lower than expected sales in 4QCY21 (v/s earlier
estimates) due to ongoing
semiconductor shortage as the LMV market is expected to grow by only
8%/1% in India/Europe.
n However, it is optimistic about growth in both India and the
European region during CY22 and CY23,
subject to semiconductor availability.
India business
n Bill Forge has secured EV orders (worth ~EUR20m, similar to
Metalcastello) for driveline
products. Margin in EVs would be similar to ICE products. However, complexity and accuracy would be higher than those of ICE products.
n All divisions grew during 3QCY21, despite the semiconductor
shortage. However, there is
uncertainty in 4QCY21
due to the chip shortage.
n Exports momentum is being impacted by high logistics cost and is
expected to grow at a slower pace.
European business
n The European business has delivered good performance, despite
COVID-19 and the semiconductor shortage, resulting in 11% growth in revenue in EUR terms.
n Good margin performance was a result of restructuring actions
taken in CY20.
n Semiconductor shortages are expected to impact 4QCY21 performance
and are expected to normalize by CY22.
n Metalcastello has secured an annual order for EVs worth EUR20m from
an American customer. The same is
expected to start by the end of CY22 and will
peak in CY25. Demand remains good. It is adding additional capacities
and machineries, and should be back
to CY19 levels soon.
Others
n The management expects CY21 capex to be ~INR4b. Going forward, it is expected
to be ~5% of the revenue, with 100% of growth
capex located in India.